pennsylvania poll biden trump

Commonwealth Foundation Pa. Survey Finds President Biden, Donald Trump in Dead Heat

Harrisburg, Pa., December 19, 2023 — When it comes to candidates who Pennsylvanians are unwilling to vote for, Joe Biden and Donald Trump are in a dead heat, according to a new Pennsylvania statewide poll released today by the Commonwealth Foundation. The quarterly “Common Ground in the Commonwealth” poll gauges Pennsylvanians’ pulse on the state’s critical issues.

The survey, the fourth in 2023, found that 47 percent of respondents expressed an unwillingness to vote for Trump and 46 percent for Biden in a general election. Among Democrats, 15 percent would decline to vote for Biden, and 18 percent of Republican voters would not vote for Trump. 

President Biden’s job approval sunk to 38 percent among Pennsylvania voters, while his disapproval rating reached its highest level this year: 61 percent. Despite this, Republicans and Democrats are currently locked in a virtual dead heat in the state’s presidential generic ballot, with 47 percent of voters saying that, were the election held today, they would support a Republican, compared to 46 percent who would support a Democrat. 

“Pennsylvania is going to play an outsized role in determining our next president and which party controls the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives,” said Jennifer Stefano, executive vice president of the Commonwealth Foundation. “The Commonwealth Foundation does not engage in elections, but we do elevate the issues people care about. What happens in Pennsylvania during the next ten months will determine the future of our nation.”

In the race for U.S. Senate, three-term Senator Bob Casey leads challenger David McCormick 42% to 27%. Casey’s support among younger voters (18 to 44) is in the mid-30s. McCormick is relatively unknown and has just 50% of GOP support.

Additional Findings

Bidenomics: 63 percent of voters stated that Bidenomics has worsened or had no effect on economic conditions in Pennsylvania.

Holiday Cheer: Contrary to the belief that political disagreements often disrupt holiday dinners, 84 percent of respondents reported that political disputes have never affected their family holidays. Additionally, only 22 percent admitted to blocking or being blocked by a close friend or family member on social media due to political differences.

All four Common Ground surveys for 2023 are available here.


The Commonwealth Foundation turns free-market ideas into public policies, fostering prosperity for all Pennsylvanians.