30,000 Jobs that Won’t Pay

Gov. Wolf’s tax plan would result in 30,000 jobs not created next year, according to a new analysis we released yesterday. Using the STAMP model, developed by economists at the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University, we estimated the impact of Gov. Wolf’s proposed tax increases over the next few years.

The model projects 29,408 fewer jobs in Pennsylvania next year, versus the baseline estimates, and 38,313 fewer the following year, after all tax changes take effect. The projections are more dire when you exclude government employment and look solely at the private sector: 39,209 fewer private sector jobs created next year, and 40,399 the following year.

This marks a sharp contrast to Gov. Wolf’s “jobs that pay” sound bite.

Total Employment 

 

Without Wolf Taxes

With Wolf Taxes

Jobs Not Created

2015-16

5,764,652

5,735,243

29,408

2016-17

5,815,360

5,777,047

38,313

2017-18

5,866,631

5,829,821

36,810

2018-19

5,918,471

5,882,391

36,080

2019-20

5,970,885

5,935,404

35,481 

Private Sector Employment 

Without Wolf Taxes

With Wolf Taxes

Jobs Not Created

2015-16

5,063,968

5,024,759

39,209

2016-17

5,116,985

5,076,586

40,399

2017-18

5,170,557

5,132,299

38,258

2018-19

5,224,691

5,186,636

38,055

2019-20

5,279,391

5,241,433

37,957

This analysis comes on the heels of an IFO study showing every income group would pay more under Wolf’s tax plan. 

You can view the full results of our analysis, including an FAQ of how the STAMP program works here.