30,000 Jobs that Won't Pay - Commonwealth Foundation

Gov. Wolf’s tax plan would result in 30,000 jobs not created next year, according to a new analysis we released yesterday. Using the STAMP model, developed by economists at the Beacon Hill Institute at Suffolk University, we estimated the impact of Gov. Wolf’s proposed tax increases over the next few years.

The model projects 29,408 fewer jobs in Pennsylvania next year, versus the baseline estimates, and 38,313 fewer the following year, after all tax changes take effect. The projections are more dire when you exclude government employment and look solely at the private sector: 39,209 fewer private sector jobs created next year, and 40,399 the following year.

This marks a sharp contrast to Gov. Wolf’s “jobs that pay” sound bite.

Total Employment

	Without Wolf Taxes	With Wolf Taxes	Jobs Not Created
2015-16	5,764,652	5,735,243	29,408
2016-17	5,815,360	5,777,047	38,313
2017-18	5,866,631	5,829,821	36,810
2018-19	5,918,471	5,882,391	36,080
2019-20	5,970,885	5,935,404	35,481

Private Sector Employment

	Without Wolf Taxes	With Wolf Taxes	Jobs Not Created
2015-16	5,063,968	5,024,759	39,209
2016-17	5,116,985	5,076,586	40,399
2017-18	5,170,557	5,132,299	38,258
2018-19	5,224,691	5,186,636	38,055
2019-20	5,279,391	5,241,433	37,957

This analysis comes on the heels of an IFO study showing every income group would pay more under Wolf’s tax plan.

You can view the full results of our analysis, including an FAQ of how the STAMP program works here.