Who are the Tea Party Members?

Much has been said and made of the Tea Party movement over the past year and especially over the last several months, much by those who have no idea what it is, but will do what they can do disparage it (but also much who agree with the fundamental ideas of tea partiers, but will do what they can to defend it).

Here is one recent analysis from the New Republic trying to summarize three strands of Tea Partiers – those that think America is in decline, those with a Jeffersonian anti-statist philosophy, and those that hold to “Jacksonian producerism” (i.e. opposing taking from tax-payers to tax eaters, especially in the form of corporate welfare). This prompted a rejoinder from David Boaz of the Cato Institute.

A recent New York Review of Books piece thinks Tea Partiers represent dangerous, radical libertarian views. Red State offers a good response to this. An LA Times piece argues that tea partiers are just hippies from the 60s with nothing else to do but protest.

We’ve even gotten analysis from Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, for whom almost every statement is an effort to bully members of his own party to back his agenda, essentially arguing the tea party movement is nonexistent and has no influence.

How Large/Influential is the Tea Party?

Nationally, Rasmussen reports that 24% of likely voters identify as members of the “Tea Party Movement.” An analysis by the Winston Group puts this number at 17%.

In Pennsylvania, 28% of voters told Rasmussen they are “part of the tea party movement.” Recent polls by Rasmussen and Franklin & Marshall College show that 40 to 45% of all voters support the goals of the tea party movement. Further, F&M reports that 50% of likely voters would be more likely to vote for a candidate supporting tea party goals.

	F&M – May		F&M – Feb		Rasmussen – March
Pennsylvania Voters	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree	Agree	Disagree
Vote for a Candidate Supporting Tea Party Goals	50%	38%	44%	34%
Generally Support Tea Party Movement	45%	32%	39%	29%	42%	33%
“Part of the Tea Party”					16%	63%

Party ID

According to Rasmussen, 55% of tea party members nationally are Republican, 7% Democrat, and 32% Independent or some other party.

While Democrats make up a small minority of tea party activists, 19% of Pennsylvania Democrats support the tea party movement, and 25% would be more likely to vote for a candidate supporting tea party goals, according to the February Franklin & Marshall poll. A solid majority of Republicans support tea party goals and candidates, and tea party ideas score more positively than negatively among Independents.

Franklin & Marshall Poll – Feb
Pennsylvania Voters	R	D	I
Support Tea Party Movement	58%	19%	41%
Oppose Tea Party Movement	10%	47%	29%
Likely to Vote for Tea Party Candidate	68%	24%	52%
Not Likely to Vote for Tea Party Candidate	11%	56%	32%

According to a New York Times/CBS News poll, 43% of Tea Partiers don’t trust Republicans. 57% claimed to have a favorable opinion of George W. Bush.  In contrast to the views that the tea party movement was fueled by anti-Obama racism, only 10% blame Obama for the state of the US economy (5% blame the Bush) and a plurality, 28%, assign blame to Congress. In contrast, only 27% of the general public has a positive opinion of Bush and 32% blame him for the state of the US.

Age & Income

Tea Partiers are concentrated in the age bracket of 45-64, with 48% falling in that category according to a Winston Group poll and about 46% according to the New York Times/CBS poll.

Contrary to claims that “the people involved are ‘hicks,’ poorly educated, or violent,” responses to the NY Times/CBS show that Tea Partiers are more likely than the general public to have gone to college, completed college, and completed post-graduate degrees. 

NY Times/CBS Tea Party Survey
	Tea Party	All Voters
Some College +	70%	53%
College Degree +	37%	25%
Graduate Degree	14%	10%

Once race and ethnicity, the conventional wisdom seems accurate – self-identified members of the tea party movement are predominantly white. A New York Times and CBS News poll reports that 3% is of Hispanic origin, 1% is black, and 1% is Asian. 89% of the Tea Partiers are white and 77% of the general electorate is white.

In terms of income, the NYT/CBS poll show Tea Partiers more likely to fall in higher income categories than the public as a whole:

	Tea Party	Overall
$0-$15,000	5	10
$15,000-$29,999	13	22
$30,000-$49,999	17	16
$50,000-$74,999	25	18
$75,000-$100,000	11	12
Over $100,000	20	14
Refused	9	7

The Winston Group study, in contrast, shows tea party members more likely to be middle-income, and less in the higher and lower income categories, than the overall public.

	Tea Party	Overall
Under $50,000	29%	34%
$50,000-$75,000	23%	17%
$75,000+	32%	34%

 

Issues and Ideology

Not surprisingly, 78% of Tea Partiers indicate they are conservative, while only 33% of the electorate as a whole does the same.

On issue questions, Tea Party members mirror the responses of the public at large, with the exceptions that more identify budget deficits as a major issue than the public at large, and the issue of “politicians/government” also ranks high.

Another study pinpoints Tea Partiers’ views on taxes and concludes that 83% of the Party believes increasing taxes will cause job losses and that tax cuts are actually the preferred job creation strategy. “The deficit is a serious concern of Tea Party members, yet a concrete reduction in unemployment is able to outweigh that concern,” says the Winston Group.

NYT/CBS polling shows that while about one-third of overall voters think the stimulus helped the economy so far, only 10% of tea party members do.

How has stimulus effected economy so far? (NYT/CBS Poll)
	Better	Worse	No impact	DK/NA
7/9-12/09 CBS	21	15	60	4
7/24-28/09	25	13	57	5
9/19-23/09	36	13	46	5
12/4-8/09	32	15	46	7
4/5-12/10	32	18	44	6
4/5-12/10 TP	10	36	52	2

The Winston Group’s poll coincides, stating that 54% of the overall electorate believes that the stimulus is not working, a view held by 87% of Tea Partiers.

Franklin and Marshall pollsters summarize the views of tea party members thus:

Tea Party supporters and opponents have very different ideas about the movement’s primary goals. Supporters most commonly cite smaller government/fiscal responsibility (31%) and more representative government (14%) as the movement’s primary goals, compared to opponents who give less concrete responses, such as anti-Democratic/pro-Republican motives (35%) and general negative comments (15%).

According to research done by the Sam Adams Alliance, Tea Partiers prioritize issues this way:

Zero percent selected “social issues” as the most important direction for the Tea Party; instead their focus began and remained on fiscal issues: 91.7 percent said “budget” is “very important,” followed by the “economy” at 85.4 percent, and “defense” at 79.6 percent.

The Tea Party Movement is by no means cohesive, nor it appropriate – as many media pundits who cover politics as a horse-race – to identify “tea party candidates”.  However, the tea party movement represents a large bloc of well-educated, middle class voters – including many Democrats – concerned with government spending, deficits, and economic intervention.