The Heritage Foundation has a new analysis from the Lewin Group on the impact in Pennsylvania on private health care coverage, the uninsured, and physicians and hospitals of the “American Affordable Health Choices Act.”
Effects on Private Coverage and the Uninsured
- 51 percent of privately insured Pennsylvania residents would transition out of private insurance. Of the estimated 7.6 million Pennsylvania residents with private health insurance, there would be a decline of 3.9 million people with private coverage.
- 59 percent of Pennsylvania residents with employer-based coverage would lose their current insurance. Of the estimated 7 million Pennsylvania residents with employer-based coverage, 4.1 million people would be shifted out of their current employer-based plan.
- 80 percent of Pennsylvania residents in a health insurance exchange would end up in the public plan. Of the estimated 5.5 million Pennsylvania residents who would obtain coverage through an exchange, 4.4 million would be covered by the public plan.
- 32 percent of the uninsured in Pennsylvania would still lack coverage. Of the estimated 1.4 million Pennsylvania residents without health insurance, the legislation would only reduce the uninsured by 952,600, leaving 447,400 Pennsylvania residents without coverage.
Effects on Physicians and Hospitals
- Physicians in Pennsylvania could see their net annual income decline by $321.4 million, an average loss in income of $6,480 per physician. Of this net loss in income, $1.832 billion is attributable to the public plan using Medicare-based payments. Today, Medicare physician payments in Pennsylvania are 76 percent of private payments.
- Hospitals in Pennsylvania could have their net annual income fall by about $2.7 billion, with hospital total margins dropping to -1.6 percent. This loss in hospital income, greater than total hospital margins, is overwhelmingly attributable to the public plan using Medicare-based payments. Today, Medicare hospital payments in Pennsylvania are 71 percent of private payments.